Lab 3: Elections

STAT 20: Introduction to Probability and Statistics

Benford’s Law - A probability distribution

Benford’s Law

• Many naturally occurring numerical variables have a recurring pattern in the distribution of the first digit.

• First digits of stock prices, populations of cities, and election results have been observed to follow this pattern.

Benford’s Law

Let \(X\) be the first digit of a randomly selected number. \(X \sim Benfords()\) if

\[P(X = x) = \log_{10}\left(1 + 1/x \right)\]

2009 Iran Election

2009 Iran Election

Background

• Ongoing public sentiment that previous election was fraudulent
• The highest voter turnout in Iran’s history

Leading candidates

• Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: Leader of conservatives and incumbent president.
• Mir-Hossein Mousavi: Reformist and former prime minister. Seeking rapid political evolution.

Outcome

Ahmadinejad won the election with 62.6% of the votes cast, while Mousavi received 33.75% of the votes cast.

Post-election controversies and unrest

• Allegations of fraud
• Public protests and unrests
• The green wave movement, led by Mousavi, against the allegedly fraudulent election and Ahmadinejad’s regime

Was the election fraudulent?

Benfords Law and Elections

Fraud detection using Benford’s Law

• A common theory is that in a normally occurring, fair, election, the first digit of the vote counts county-by-county should follow Benford’s Law. If they do not, that might suggest that vote counts have been manually altered.

• This theory was brought to bear to determine whether the 2009 presidential election in Iran showed irregularities¹.

1. https://physicsworld.com/a/benfords-law-and-the-iranian-e/

Lab 3

In this lab we will:

• Examine the Benford’s Law probability distribution

• Compare the first digits of vote counts in the 2009 Iranian election to this distribution

• Reach a conclusion on whether the election was fraudulent (or whether the Benford’s Law is a good tool at detecting fraud in the first place).

Lab 3 work time

50:00